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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Prediction Results

2012 PredictionsThroughout the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election, I ran a poll asking people to predict the outcome.

I posted a snapshot of the results prior to Election day:

After that post, I received additional entries to bring the total submissions up to 40.

As there was only one candidate to choose from, I also asked people to predict the number of votes they would receive (along with total votes cast in case of a tie).

Prediction Winner

Bragging rights (until the next Ward 3 By-Election) now go to:

  • Dave Drinnan – who lives in Ward 3successfully predicted the winning candidate (Gerry Lowe), and he was closest to predicting  the total votes received 1000 (actual was 1028).  He was also pretty close on the total votes cast, predicting 2,400 (actual was 2,782).

Group Prediction Results

When looking at the total responses for the entire group, people were strongly predicting a Michelle Hooton victory (with a close race between Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson for second place):

Candidate

Position

Michelle Hooton

56%

Gerry Lowe

17%

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

17%

Group Prediction Surprises

The group ended up preduicting the wrong candidate, and the percentages were quite off when compared to the actual the vote breakdown: Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

If you only look at Ward 3 predictors, the results closer; but, Michelle Hooton was still clearly leading within that group.

 
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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

Below are the unofficial results of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election:

Candidate

Votes

Brian Boyd

69

Barbara Ellemberg

74

Michelle Hooton

816

Mark LeBlanc

225

Allen Leslie

24

Gerry Lowe

1,028

Anne-Marie Mullin

273

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

264

Voter turnout was 2,782 out of 11,663 voters (23.85%).

Congratulations Gerry!

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election Election Prediction

Update: I’ve updated the charts below to reflect the additional predictions made yesterday; however, the percentages have remained relatively stable.

Tomorrow is election day in Saint John – the Ward 3 By-Election is nearly over; but, you still have a chance to change the outcome!

As everyone keeps asking me how the “prediction contest” is going, I’ve decided to post the current survey snapshot in the hope that this may spur more people into casting a ballot.

There are currently 36 responses from people – the majority of responses coming from within Ward 3.


Ward 3 Areas

The Prediction:

The chart below shows who these 36 people are “predicting” to win a seat:

Ward 3 Predictions

Analysis

It appears that is Michelle Hooton is the favorite to win – with both Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson close behind.  What do you think?  Are they right?

For your reference, during the last Ward 3 By-Election (Dec 2010), Mel Norton was elected with 516 votes. Total number of votes cast was: 1,941.

Note: This contest is simply for fun.  I’m very curious to see if anyone can accurately pick the winning candidate – along with number of votes (for bragging rights).  The actual outcome, as always, is decided by the people to go and vote.  If you want to see your candidates win – get out and vote!

 

Additional Information

Looking to get your picks submitted into the contest?  Submit your picks here (up until 8pm on Election Night):

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Ward 3 Candidate Video Interviews

YouTubeVarious broadcast students attending Atlantica Centre for the Arts have created video interviews of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Candidates.

Check them out below!

Read more about the candidates here:

Brian Boyd

Barbara Ellemberg

Michelle Hooton

Mark LeBlanc

No interview.

Allen Leslie

Gerry Lowe

Anne-Marie Mullin

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

 

 
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Predict the Ward 3 By-Election Winner

Voting MachineThink you have what it takes to correctly pick the winning candidate for the Ward 3 Municipal By-Election?

You did so well at predicting the winners in the 2012 election, that I’m curious if you can do it again.

You can submit your pick here:

Also, don’t forget to actually vote!

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election – Candidate’s Email Answers

Social Media ElectionAs was done during the 2012 Saint John Municipal Election, Sarah Ingalls (@s_ingalls) and Sally Blount (@SaintJohnSally), are reaching out to the various Ward 3 by-election candidates to ask a set of questions, and I will be posting the responses for everyone to see.

The questions and answers generated a lot of traffic last time, and we hope to do the same again – allowing voters in Ward 3 an opportunity to hear more from each candidate to allow them to make an informed decision!

Below are the questions being asked to each candidate via email:

1. What are your top two priorities?

2. What is your professional background and training?

3. What is your volunteer experience?

4. What are your thoughts on the current city transit situation?

5. Are you familiar with the bus system and have you used it on a regular basis?

6. What do you see as Ward 3′s biggest issues?

7. Are you willing to address issues with city staff and do any restructuring that may need to be done?

8. Do you support the creation of a Multiplex in Saint John?

9. What improvements do you feel can be made to Saint John’s current garbage/compost collection?

10. Do you support the return of food trucks to Saint John?

11. There has been recent discussion on the state of the Jellybean Houses (purchased by the city in case they were needed when constructing the Peel Plaza complex and parking garage) and how the city should proceed with these houses. Opinions vary between the buildings being unsalvageable and should be torn down, to restoring the properties. How do you feel the city should proceed?

12. Recent news articles have highlighted issues with upcoming union contract negotiations, specifically the guaranteed staffing levels for Outside Workers Local 18, and the no layoff clause for the Saint John Police Association (with the understanding they report to the Police Commission). Given these provisions are not carried over in other union contracts, or to other departments within the city, what challenges/opportunities do you feel this presents for the city of Saint John?

Below are the answers received (so far):

Read more…

 
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Historica Developments – Flip Saint John | Video Blog #1

Published on 2013-04-06 by in 21inc, Saint John, Videos

Keith Brideau, of Historica Developments, is doing some amazing things here in Saint John.

Now is he starting a video blog – Flip Saint John – to keep us updated.

Be sure to check it out, the first video is now live:

 
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LNG property assessment

Propertize.ca was referenced in a recent story on CBC NB about the LNG Tax Deal:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility once again ranks as the province’s priciest real estate, but a controversial eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city has kept its bill low.

You can view the video below:

You can see the assessments here:

A story later appeared online to go with the above video that included my Dad’s story:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility — New Brunswick’s most expensive piece of property — continues to grow in value, but its taxes are holding steady because of an eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city.

The liquid natural gas terminal is New Brunswick’s most valuable piece of assessed property at just under $300 million.

The facility’s value grew $4.3 million this year, on top of a $4.4-million increase last year.

A 25-year property tax deal struck by former Saint John mayor Norm McFarlane for the LNG development froze its bill at $500,000 a year.

The property tax deal caused protests in the city for weeks.

Eight years later the gap between LNG and other facilities continues to grow.

By comparison, the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station now pays $5.8 million in property tax — 12 times more than the LNG terminal — even though its assessment is $66 million lower.

“I’m assuming they’re sending someone down each and every year to determine what the value is and it seems to be going up a few million dollars each and every year,” says Shawn Peterson, who runs the propertize.ca, a website that provides searchable tax assessment information.

Peterson said provincial assessors do keep track of the LNG plant, although, in the end, it’s salt in the wound for a city forbidden from cashing in on its growing property value.

Last month, former Liberal premier Frank McKenna said the LNG plant may yet trigger an economic rebirth for Saint John, well beyond the modest annual contribution it makes to the city’s tax haul.

Homeowners facing hikes

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has lifted a three-per-cent property tax freeze that’s been in place for the last two years.

That has been causing some tax bill jumps, including in Saint John where some residents and other property owners are facing huge increases.

Isaac Miller is a frequent user of the city’s four-year-old skateboard park.

“It’s really great to have a public park that has no costs,” said Miller.

Provincial assessors slapped the park with a $1,051 tax bill — 150 times more than the $7 it was charged the last two years.

Last year, Walter Peterson did energy efficiency renovations on his 30-year-old eastside bungalow, including new windows and vinyl siding.

Peterson was expecting a bump in his tax bill.

The province added $148,000 to his assessment.

“I almost fell off the chair because it went up 122 per cent,” said Peterson

His house, valued at $121,000 each of the last two years, is now assessed at just under $270,000 with a $4,300 property tax bill to match.

The renovations were encouraged by the province and partially paid for by Efficiency NB.

“Well if I get $269,000, it’s sold. Anyone who wants to come with a cheque, it’s gone,” he said.

Peterson has already filed an appeal, one of thousands the province deals with annually.

Related information:

 
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T4G Big Data Congress 2013 Video

Published on 2013-02-20 by in Event, Saint John, T4G, Technology

Check out the following video that does a great job as showing what took place at the T4G  Big Data Congress here in Saint John last month:

 
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City Discusses Making Internal Data Public

Open Data

There was a great article in yesterday’s Telegraph-Journal around the Open Data and Saint John:

SAINT JOHN – As IT experts converge on the city for the Big Data Congress on Thursday, a discussion has resurfaced over whether the City of Saint John should implement an Open Data policy to make internal collections of information public.

“I believe the concept is really all around making sure that information that isn’t private is being released. Maybe its’s mapping information for the city, maybe it’s locations of bus stops, maybe it’s fire hydrants,” said Shawn Peterson, an ICT professional who will be attending the conference.

“I think it’s a different mind-set. Municipalities and governments aren’t necessarily used to sharing raw data with people,” he said.

Open data policies have been adopted across the country – most notably by Vancouver, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Toronto – as well as by the federal government. They release a variety of data sets, including lists of public amenities, statistics on city services, or budget reports.

City councillor Greg Norton said there can be many advantages in making that information public. “If we do share the data that we have in a municipality, there’s going to be huge potential for our city to overcome challenges,” he said. “Open data reveals all of those essential elements that would allow the outside, the private sector in particular, to establish themselves not as outsiders but as equals in creating solutions for provinces.”

He said Saint John is in an especially strong position in that respect because of its thriving ICT sector, “which to me is a gold mine, something that we need to embrace,” he said. “We need to give protective license to allowing them access to information that can allow us within the city’s framework solve some of the hurdles that we struggle with, provide efficiency that we may not have realized if we didn’t share data.”

Norton said it’s a matter of finding a strong leader to bring the idea forward to council, and be willing to invest the time to make the project work. “The quicker we buy in to open data, the quicker we’re going to create efficiencies, the quicker we’re going to see growth in economic sector. At the end of the day it’s working in collaboration,” he said.

At Thursday’s conference, a hackathon will allow people to see the direct results of making data available to the public, said Michael Whelton, a school principal. Several of his students from St. Malachy’s High School will be joining in with their teachers, playing with data provided by the City of Saint John.

Peterson said the data includes Saint John transit numbers, as well as data sets relating to flooding and snow clearing.

Brian Woods, the city’s manager of information technology, said

“What the hackathon is looking for is people who are passionate about questions and passionate about data,” he said. “If you find passionate people, then you’ll get really engaged activity, and the information that comes out and the knowledge that comes out – they’re going to go that extra mile.”

He said before making it public, city staff have to go through the data sets and remove private information, and spend time formatting it. That can take time, and staff.

“If release a data set that has been cleaned, and is opened, and from that we depose some questions and people come up with some answers, maybe the next step in my mind is we can take that and apply it to our data proper,” he said. “That’s the power of open data.”

He said the four Canadian cities leading open data are much larger than Saint John, and can devote more time and resources to the project. He said some of the city’s data – mainly the GIS mapping software they use – is sold to private industry, making it part of the city’s revenue. As well, much of the data is already available on the city’s website through council minutes. It’s just not as easily accessible.

“This open data is not a new thing but with the way it’s starting to get used and the answers coming out of it, it’s really exciting,” he said.

via telegraphjournal.com (written by Carolyn Thompson)

 
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