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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Prediction Results

2012 PredictionsThroughout the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election, I ran a poll asking people to predict the outcome.

I posted a snapshot of the results prior to Election day:

After that post, I received additional entries to bring the total submissions up to 40.

As there was only one candidate to choose from, I also asked people to predict the number of votes they would receive (along with total votes cast in case of a tie).

Prediction Winner

Bragging rights (until the next Ward 3 By-Election) now go to:

  • Dave Drinnan – who lives in Ward 3successfully predicted the winning candidate (Gerry Lowe), and he was closest to predicting  the total votes received 1000 (actual was 1028).  He was also pretty close on the total votes cast, predicting 2,400 (actual was 2,782).

Group Prediction Results

When looking at the total responses for the entire group, people were strongly predicting a Michelle Hooton victory (with a close race between Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson for second place):

Candidate

Position

Michelle Hooton

56%

Gerry Lowe

17%

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

17%

Group Prediction Surprises

The group ended up preduicting the wrong candidate, and the percentages were quite off when compared to the actual the vote breakdown: Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

If you only look at Ward 3 predictors, the results closer; but, Michelle Hooton was still clearly leading within that group.

 
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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

Below are the unofficial results of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election:

Candidate

Votes

Brian Boyd

69

Barbara Ellemberg

74

Michelle Hooton

816

Mark LeBlanc

225

Allen Leslie

24

Gerry Lowe

1,028

Anne-Marie Mullin

273

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

264

Voter turnout was 2,782 out of 11,663 voters (23.85%).

Congratulations Gerry!

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election Election Prediction

Update: I’ve updated the charts below to reflect the additional predictions made yesterday; however, the percentages have remained relatively stable.

Tomorrow is election day in Saint John – the Ward 3 By-Election is nearly over; but, you still have a chance to change the outcome!

As everyone keeps asking me how the “prediction contest” is going, I’ve decided to post the current survey snapshot in the hope that this may spur more people into casting a ballot.

There are currently 36 responses from people – the majority of responses coming from within Ward 3.


Ward 3 Areas

The Prediction:

The chart below shows who these 36 people are “predicting” to win a seat:

Ward 3 Predictions

Analysis

It appears that is Michelle Hooton is the favorite to win – with both Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson close behind.  What do you think?  Are they right?

For your reference, during the last Ward 3 By-Election (Dec 2010), Mel Norton was elected with 516 votes. Total number of votes cast was: 1,941.

Note: This contest is simply for fun.  I’m very curious to see if anyone can accurately pick the winning candidate – along with number of votes (for bragging rights).  The actual outcome, as always, is decided by the people to go and vote.  If you want to see your candidates win – get out and vote!

 

Additional Information

Looking to get your picks submitted into the contest?  Submit your picks here (up until 8pm on Election Night):

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Ward 3 Candidate Video Interviews

YouTubeVarious broadcast students attending Atlantica Centre for the Arts have created video interviews of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Candidates.

Check them out below!

Read more about the candidates here:

Brian Boyd

Barbara Ellemberg

Michelle Hooton

Mark LeBlanc

No interview.

Allen Leslie

Gerry Lowe

Anne-Marie Mullin

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

 

 
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Predict the Ward 3 By-Election Winner

Voting MachineThink you have what it takes to correctly pick the winning candidate for the Ward 3 Municipal By-Election?

You did so well at predicting the winners in the 2012 election, that I’m curious if you can do it again.

You can submit your pick here:

Also, don’t forget to actually vote!

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election – Candidate’s Email Answers

Social Media ElectionAs was done during the 2012 Saint John Municipal Election, Sarah Ingalls (@s_ingalls) and Sally Blount (@SaintJohnSally), are reaching out to the various Ward 3 by-election candidates to ask a set of questions, and I will be posting the responses for everyone to see.

The questions and answers generated a lot of traffic last time, and we hope to do the same again – allowing voters in Ward 3 an opportunity to hear more from each candidate to allow them to make an informed decision!

Below are the questions being asked to each candidate via email:

1. What are your top two priorities?

2. What is your professional background and training?

3. What is your volunteer experience?

4. What are your thoughts on the current city transit situation?

5. Are you familiar with the bus system and have you used it on a regular basis?

6. What do you see as Ward 3′s biggest issues?

7. Are you willing to address issues with city staff and do any restructuring that may need to be done?

8. Do you support the creation of a Multiplex in Saint John?

9. What improvements do you feel can be made to Saint John’s current garbage/compost collection?

10. Do you support the return of food trucks to Saint John?

11. There has been recent discussion on the state of the Jellybean Houses (purchased by the city in case they were needed when constructing the Peel Plaza complex and parking garage) and how the city should proceed with these houses. Opinions vary between the buildings being unsalvageable and should be torn down, to restoring the properties. How do you feel the city should proceed?

12. Recent news articles have highlighted issues with upcoming union contract negotiations, specifically the guaranteed staffing levels for Outside Workers Local 18, and the no layoff clause for the Saint John Police Association (with the understanding they report to the Police Commission). Given these provisions are not carried over in other union contracts, or to other departments within the city, what challenges/opportunities do you feel this presents for the city of Saint John?

Below are the answers received (so far):

Read more…

 
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LNG property assessment

Propertize.ca was referenced in a recent story on CBC NB about the LNG Tax Deal:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility once again ranks as the province’s priciest real estate, but a controversial eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city has kept its bill low.

You can view the video below:

You can see the assessments here:

A story later appeared online to go with the above video that included my Dad’s story:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility — New Brunswick’s most expensive piece of property — continues to grow in value, but its taxes are holding steady because of an eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city.

The liquid natural gas terminal is New Brunswick’s most valuable piece of assessed property at just under $300 million.

The facility’s value grew $4.3 million this year, on top of a $4.4-million increase last year.

A 25-year property tax deal struck by former Saint John mayor Norm McFarlane for the LNG development froze its bill at $500,000 a year.

The property tax deal caused protests in the city for weeks.

Eight years later the gap between LNG and other facilities continues to grow.

By comparison, the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station now pays $5.8 million in property tax — 12 times more than the LNG terminal — even though its assessment is $66 million lower.

“I’m assuming they’re sending someone down each and every year to determine what the value is and it seems to be going up a few million dollars each and every year,” says Shawn Peterson, who runs the propertize.ca, a website that provides searchable tax assessment information.

Peterson said provincial assessors do keep track of the LNG plant, although, in the end, it’s salt in the wound for a city forbidden from cashing in on its growing property value.

Last month, former Liberal premier Frank McKenna said the LNG plant may yet trigger an economic rebirth for Saint John, well beyond the modest annual contribution it makes to the city’s tax haul.

Homeowners facing hikes

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has lifted a three-per-cent property tax freeze that’s been in place for the last two years.

That has been causing some tax bill jumps, including in Saint John where some residents and other property owners are facing huge increases.

Isaac Miller is a frequent user of the city’s four-year-old skateboard park.

“It’s really great to have a public park that has no costs,” said Miller.

Provincial assessors slapped the park with a $1,051 tax bill — 150 times more than the $7 it was charged the last two years.

Last year, Walter Peterson did energy efficiency renovations on his 30-year-old eastside bungalow, including new windows and vinyl siding.

Peterson was expecting a bump in his tax bill.

The province added $148,000 to his assessment.

“I almost fell off the chair because it went up 122 per cent,” said Peterson

His house, valued at $121,000 each of the last two years, is now assessed at just under $270,000 with a $4,300 property tax bill to match.

The renovations were encouraged by the province and partially paid for by Efficiency NB.

“Well if I get $269,000, it’s sold. Anyone who wants to come with a cheque, it’s gone,” he said.

Peterson has already filed an appeal, one of thousands the province deals with annually.

Related information:

 
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True Growth 2.0 Executive Summary

It’s been a busy few days!

True Growth 2.0 was handed over to the Regional Mayor’s last night after several months of work.

At the public portion of the event, Deputy Mayor Shelley Rinehart gave a high level overview of the plan.  Below are a few snippets from today’s Telegraph-Journal article on the event and plan:

A proposed strategy to bolster economic growth in the region will focus on attracting jobs and investment in six sectors that range from health sciences to financial services.

The economic development plan for Greater Saint John seeks to build on the region’s strengths, such as affordable living and the port that offers a shipping gateway to the world, to draw more workers and businesses.

Deputy Mayor Shelley Rinehart, chairwoman of a steering committee behind the proposal, said business leaders and the region’s economic development agency will be responsible for setting goals and seeing them through.

“In January there will be a call to action, and I hope all of you are ready to roll up your sleeves and work hard,” Rinehart told a crowd of business executives and politicians at the Diamond Jubilee Cruise Terminal.

The new strategy focuses on attracting jobs and investment in six areas: tourism, energy, financial, insurance and professional services, advanced manufacturing and industrial fabrication, information and communications technology and health sciences.

Many of those were part of the old plan, dubbed True Growth, but Rinehart said her steering committee confirmed over the last few months that there is still great opportunity to grow these sectors even more.

via telegraphjournal.com (written by Reid Southwick)

 

The executive summary of the report was handed out at the event, and I wanted to make sure was shared online for anyone that wasn’t able to attend.  Click the image below to download a copy:

 

Update: The full report can be viewed here!

 
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A Focus on the Big Challenges: Team Building & Restoring Trust

In case you missed it, Saint John’s new mayor, Mel Norton, posted a great article on his blog over the weekend detailing Council’s highlights to date and ongoing challenges.

It’s a great read, and it I would encourage you to share it within your networks.

It’s also an important reminder why Mel and the current council are needed now more then ever:

The City’s current Council members took their seats around the horseshoe on May 28th at a celebratory swearing-in ceremony where we were greeted with optimism and applause. I know that my Council colleagues and I each felt that, in that moment, we could take on any challenge and overcome any obstacle. Though the celebration and applause has given way to the regular work of Council, the optimism that greeted us that night remained in each of us as we took up that work and set about fulfilling the great expectations that you have placed on us.

Though I know that each member of Council has been working very hard over these months, I know and feel the same sense of urgency you all feel to get our city back on track quickly. I hope that as we move forward we can rebuild your trust in our city’s future.

Let me start by acknowledging that there remains much work to do to correct a broken pension plan and a growing debt; and to better meet the needs and the priorities of our people. Let me also tell you of just some of the progress that we have made since taking office.

The first five months at City Hall has been about building the bridges and the teamwork to forge ahead and foster a culture of ownership and positive change, both within City Hall, and within the greater community at large. Outlined below are some of the highlights on our progress and the partnerships formed to help build on success in our shared future…

Click here to read the complete article.

Also, be sure to follow Mel Norton on Twitter @Melnortonsj!

 
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Mel Norton Is Mayor

In case you missed it, here is Mel Norton’s victory speech as the new mayor of Saint John, NB:

 
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