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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Prediction Results

Published on 2013-05-14 by in Saint John, Saint John Politics

2012 PredictionsThroughout the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election, I ran a poll asking people to predict the outcome.

I posted a snapshot of the results prior to Election day:

After that post, I received additional entries to bring the total submissions up to 40.

As there was only one candidate to choose from, I also asked people to predict the number of votes they would receive (along with total votes cast in case of a tie).

Prediction Winner

Bragging rights (until the next Ward 3 By-Election) now go to:

  • Dave Drinnan – who lives in Ward 3, successfully predicted the winning candidate (Gerry Lowe), and he was closest to predicting  the total votes received 1000 (actual was 1028).  He was also pretty close on the total votes cast, predicting 2,400 (actual was 2,782).

Group Prediction Results

When looking at the total responses for the entire group, people were strongly predicting a Michelle Hooton victory (with a close race between Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson for second place):

Candidate

Position
Michelle Hooton

56%
Gerry Lowe

17%
Graeme Stewart-Robertson

17%

Group Prediction Surprises

The group ended up preduicting the wrong candidate, and the percentages were quite off when compared to the actual the vote breakdown: Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

If you only look at Ward 3 predictors, the results closer; but, Michelle Hooton was still clearly leading within that group.

 
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Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Results

Published on 2013-05-14 by in News, Saint John, Saint John Politics

Below are the unofficial results of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election:

Candidate

Votes
Brian Boyd

69
Barbara Ellemberg

74
Michelle Hooton

816
Mark LeBlanc

225
Allen Leslie

24
Gerry Lowe

1,028
Anne-Marie Mullin

273
Graeme Stewart-Robertson

264

Voter turnout was 2,782 out of 11,663 voters (23.85%).

Congratulations Gerry!

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election Election Prediction

Published on 2013-05-12 by in Saint John, Saint John Politics

Update: I’ve updated the charts below to reflect the additional predictions made yesterday; however, the percentages have remained relatively stable.

Tomorrow is election day in Saint John – the Ward 3 By-Election is nearly over; but, you still have a chance to change the outcome!

As everyone keeps asking me how the “prediction contest” is going, I’ve decided to post the current survey snapshot in the hope that this may spur more people into casting a ballot.

There are currently 36 responses from people – the majority of responses coming from within Ward 3.


 Ward 3 Areas

The Prediction:

The chart below shows who these 36 people are “predicting” to win a seat:

Ward 3 Predictions

Analysis

It appears that is Michelle Hooton is the favorite to win – with both Gerry Lowe and Graeme Stewart-Robertson close behind.  What do you think?  Are they right?

For your reference, during the last Ward 3 By-Election (Dec 2010), Mel Norton was elected with 516 votes. Total number of votes cast was: 1,941.

Note: This contest is simply for fun.  I’m very curious to see if anyone can accurately pick the winning candidate – along with number of votes (for bragging rights).  The actual outcome, as always, is decided by the people to go and vote.  If you want to see your candidates win – get out and vote!

 

Additional Information

Looking to get your picks submitted into the contest?  Submit your picks here (up until 8pm on Election Night):

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Ward 3 Candidate Video Interviews

Published on 2013-05-09 by in Saint John, Saint John Politics, Videos

YouTubeVarious broadcast students attending Atlantica Centre for the Arts have created video interviews of the Saint John Ward 3 By-Election Candidates.

Check them out below!

Read more about the candidates here:

Brian Boyd

Barbara Ellemberg

Michelle Hooton

Mark LeBlanc

No interview.

Allen Leslie

Gerry Lowe

Anne-Marie Mullin

Graeme Stewart-Robertson

 

 
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Predict the Ward 3 By-Election Winner

Published on 2013-04-23 by in Saint John, Saint John Politics

Voting MachineThink you have what it takes to correctly pick the winning candidate for the Ward 3 Municipal By-Election?

You did so well at predicting the winners in the 2012 election, that I’m curious if you can do it again.

You can submit your pick here:

Also, don’t forget to actually vote!

Looking to learn more about the candidates?

 
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Saint John 2013 Ward 3 By-Election – Candidate’s Email Answers

Published on 2013-04-22 by in Saint John, Saint John Politics

Social Media ElectionAs was done during the 2012 Saint John Municipal Election, Sarah Ingalls (@s_ingalls) and Sally Blount (@SaintJohnSally), are reaching out to the various Ward 3 by-election candidates to ask a set of questions, and I will be posting the responses for everyone to see.

The questions and answers generated a lot of traffic last time, and we hope to do the same again – allowing voters in Ward 3 an opportunity to hear more from each candidate to allow them to make an informed decision!

Below are the questions being asked to each candidate via email:

1. What are your top two priorities?

2. What is your professional background and training?

3. What is your volunteer experience?

4. What are your thoughts on the current city transit situation?

5. Are you familiar with the bus system and have you used it on a regular basis?

6. What do you see as Ward 3′s biggest issues?

7. Are you willing to address issues with city staff and do any restructuring that may need to be done?

8. Do you support the creation of a Multiplex in Saint John?

9. What improvements do you feel can be made to Saint John’s current garbage/compost collection?

10. Do you support the return of food trucks to Saint John?

11. There has been recent discussion on the state of the Jellybean Houses (purchased by the city in case they were needed when constructing the Peel Plaza complex and parking garage) and how the city should proceed with these houses. Opinions vary between the buildings being unsalvageable and should be torn down, to restoring the properties. How do you feel the city should proceed?

12. Recent news articles have highlighted issues with upcoming union contract negotiations, specifically the guaranteed staffing levels for Outside Workers Local 18, and the no layoff clause for the Saint John Police Association (with the understanding they report to the Police Commission). Given these provisions are not carried over in other union contracts, or to other departments within the city, what challenges/opportunities do you feel this presents for the city of Saint John?

Below are the answers received (so far):

Read more…

 
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2013 NB Property Tax Assessments – Why The Levy’s Don’t Make Sense!

Published on 2013-03-07 by in New Brunswick, New Brunswick Politics, Propertize.ca

TaxBillMany people from across New Brunswick have been using Propertize.ca recently to compare their property tax assessments.

A common question that keeps coming up is around the levy (which is the amount that the property will pay in tax for 2013).

The answer is fairly complicated, so I will try to walk through a few reasons why it will vary on listings.

The 3% Cap is over

First, you have to understand that the last two years saw a cap of 3% on assessment increases (2011 and 2012).  That program is now over.

To avoid your assessment immediately increasing to account for the difference (over the cap) in 2013, the government decided you will never pay tax on that difference (so long as the property remains your primary residence and you do not sell it).  They call this the Assessment Gap (described by SNB below):

Assessment Gap (Permanent Assessment Exemption)

This new “Assessment Gap” serves as a permanent exemption from taxation and represents the difference between the 2012 market value and the 2012 capped value.

If you benefited from the 3% cap in 2011 and 2012 you will be able to keep this savings until your home is sold or ceases to be your principle residence.

Real Property Assessment

This is supposed to be the actual value of your property (what you would expect to list it for if selling) as of January 1st, 2013.

In an simple system, we would simply multiply this by your tax rate (add a few fees) and that would be your levy.

That isn’t the case, to avoid large increases (as the real property assessment for many people have jump by a huge margin), the government decided to create “spike protection” so that the assessed amount that you pay tax on can only increase 10% each year  (described by SNB below):

Assessment Spike Protection

This new mechanism protects homeowners from unexpected assessment spikes.

Any increase greater than 10% will be phased in over time, making assessment growth much more stable and predictable.

New construction and/or major improvements are excluded from this protection.

The challenge that many people are seeing, including my parents, is that the “spike protection” seems to have a lot of wiggle room.  Expect to hear more on this over the next few weeks.

So Why Does Levy Not Make Sense?

When comparing properties, you simply can’t tell what may be going on with their levy unless you see the actual tax bill:

  • Did they benefit from the 3% caps to earn a large Assessment Gap deduction?
  • Did they qualify for the Assessment Spike Protection?
  • Is the property not their primary residence?  They would pay an additional 1.8x tax in this case.
  • Is their municipal tax rate different?
  • What are they actually assessed at for tax purposes (Net Amount for Taxation) on the bill?

Basically, what I am trying to get at is comparing levys doesn’t make any sense as there are too many variables that influence it.

You best best is to determine nearby comparables, look at recent sales, and try to determine if your “Real Property Assessment” is inline with those. If not, you may have a case to appeal.

Where can you do this comparison easily?  Try http://propertize.ca!

 

 
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LNG property assessment

Published on 2013-03-06 by in New Brunswick, News, Propertize.ca, Saint John, Saint John Politics, Videos

Propertize.ca was referenced in a recent story on CBC NB about the LNG Tax Deal:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility once again ranks as the province’s priciest real estate, but a controversial eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city has kept its bill low.

You can view the video below:

You can see the assessments here:

A story later appeared online to go with the above video that included my Dad’s story:

Saint John’s Canaport LNG facility — New Brunswick’s most expensive piece of property — continues to grow in value, but its taxes are holding steady because of an eight-year-old property tax deal it cut with the city.

The liquid natural gas terminal is New Brunswick’s most valuable piece of assessed property at just under $300 million.

The facility’s value grew $4.3 million this year, on top of a $4.4-million increase last year.

A 25-year property tax deal struck by former Saint John mayor Norm McFarlane for the LNG development froze its bill at $500,000 a year.

The property tax deal caused protests in the city for weeks.

Eight years later the gap between LNG and other facilities continues to grow.

By comparison, the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station now pays $5.8 million in property tax — 12 times more than the LNG terminal — even though its assessment is $66 million lower.

“I’m assuming they’re sending someone down each and every year to determine what the value is and it seems to be going up a few million dollars each and every year,” says Shawn Peterson, who runs the propertize.ca, a website that provides searchable tax assessment information.

Peterson said provincial assessors do keep track of the LNG plant, although, in the end, it’s salt in the wound for a city forbidden from cashing in on its growing property value.

Last month, former Liberal premier Frank McKenna said the LNG plant may yet trigger an economic rebirth for Saint John, well beyond the modest annual contribution it makes to the city’s tax haul.

Homeowners facing hikes

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has lifted a three-per-cent property tax freeze that’s been in place for the last two years.

That has been causing some tax bill jumps, including in Saint John where some residents and other property owners are facing huge increases.

Isaac Miller is a frequent user of the city’s four-year-old skateboard park.

“It’s really great to have a public park that has no costs,” said Miller.

Provincial assessors slapped the park with a $1,051 tax bill — 150 times more than the $7 it was charged the last two years.

Last year, Walter Peterson did energy efficiency renovations on his 30-year-old eastside bungalow, including new windows and vinyl siding.

Peterson was expecting a bump in his tax bill.

The province added $148,000 to his assessment.

“I almost fell off the chair because it went up 122 per cent,” said Peterson

His house, valued at $121,000 each of the last two years, is now assessed at just under $270,000 with a $4,300 property tax bill to match.

The renovations were encouraged by the province and partially paid for by Efficiency NB.

“Well if I get $269,000, it’s sold. Anyone who wants to come with a cheque, it’s gone,” he said.

Peterson has already filed an appeal, one of thousands the province deals with annually.

Related information:

 
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Propertize.ca – Updated with 2013 Property Tax Assessments

Published on 2013-03-01 by in New Brunswick Politics, News, Propertize.ca, SaintJohnShawn.com, Technology

Last night, Service New Brunswick released the 2013 NB Property Tax Assessments!

In less then 24 hours, I was able to process the data – making it available on Propertize.ca.

Users will be happy to know that most properties in New Brunswick now have data available for 2011, 2012, and 2013 – making it even easier to compare your tax assessment.

Another enhancement was made prior to Christmas, which was the redesign of the website using Bootstrap, making  Propertize.ca both mobile and tablet friendly:

Propertize.ca

Propertize.ca

Propertize.ca

If you haven’t checked out Propertize.ca yet, what are you waiting for?

Don’t forget to share this site with your friends and family.

Send me your feedback!

As always – changes are driven by user feedback, suggestions, and even your angry rants – so be sure to tell me what you think!

Leave a comment below, or send me an email.

 
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Propertize.ca Helps Identify Tax Cut Winners

Published on 2012-12-03 by in New Brunswick Politics, News, Propertize.ca

Propertize.ca helped provide property tax assessment data which made it easier to identify the largest tax cut winners in a CBC.ca article from today.

A collection of power plants, shopping malls, industrial sites and commercial properties are the big winners in a multi-million dollar property tax cut introduced by New Brunswick’s cash-strapped provincial government last week, a CBC News review shows.

…

No numbers were given over how the cuts will be distributed, but a CBC review of current tax assessments compiled by the website propertize.ca shows the 10 highest taxed properties will eventually save a combined $3.4 million a year.

NB Power’s Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station will be the single biggest winner with a property tax cut of $759,768, followed by:

  • NB Power’s coal-fired generating plant in Belledune ($411,306)
  • Champlain Mall in Dieppe ($397,579)
  • the new Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (PCS) mine in Penobsquis ($343,633)
  • Irving Oil Ltd.’s refinery in Saint John ($319,546)
  • NB Power’s oil-fired generator at Coleson Cove ($300,251)
  • Regent Mall in Fredericton ($242,360)
  • the old PCS potash mine also in Penobsquis ($238,332)
  • McCallister shopping mall in Saint John ($197,510)
  • Irving Paper’s east Saint John mill ($194,205).

via CBC.ca (written by Robert Jones)

 

 

  • Has Propertize.ca helped you?
  • Is Open Data important to you?

Let me know what you think!

 
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