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Saint John 2012 Election Prediction Results

Near the end of the Saint John 2012 Election campaign, I created a contest to allow people to select who they believed would win a seat on council.

I posted a snapshot of the results on Election day:

After that post, I received additional entries to bring the total submissions up to 152.

I crunched the results the following day and found one person who accurately predicted all 11 positions, and another who predicted all but one.

Prediction Winners

Bragging rights (until the next Municipal Election) now go to:

  • John Delaney - who lives in Ward 2.  In addition to selecting all council positions, he was also successful in predicting his DEC and RHA candidates!

The runner-up, who selected 10/11 picks correctly was:

  • Chris Dever - who lives in Ward 3.

Eleven people followed these two with 9 out of 11 correct picks.

I even had one person who managed to get 0 out of 11 picks!

Group Prediction Results

When looking at the total responses for the entire group, people accurately predicted 9 out of 11 winners:

Candidate

Position

Mel K. Norton

Mayor

Shelley M. Rinehart

Councillor At Large

Greg J. Norton

Councillor Ward 1

Bill Farren

Councillor Ward 1

Susan Fullerton

Councillor Ward 2

Donnie Snook

Councillor Ward 3

Donna Reardon

Councillor Ward 3

David Merrithew

Councillor Ward 4

Ray Strowbridge

Councillor Ward 4

Group Prediction Surprises

In terms of the incorrect choices, many believed John Campbell would narrowly defeat Shirley McAlary for the Councillor At Large position, which did not pan out at all.

The biggest surprise came from people predicting Gary Sullivan to place second in Ward 2.  Patty Higgins was close behind him – and even Morgan Lanigan was predicted to be more likely to win then John MacKenzie.  Voters in Ward 2, proved them all wrong; however, electing John MacKenzie in a solid second place finish.

 
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